For The Love Of The Game

Lirano sent to Minors

03.28.08

This afternoon the Twins announced that Fransisco Lirano will start the season pitching for the Class A Fort Myers Miracle.  In my opinion, this is a good move by the front office for several reasons.

1.  He’s rusty.  Lirano has shown some signs of regaining the form that he had in 2006 but for the most part he is missing his velocity and his slider.  As a pitcher, he needs to learn to trust his surgically repaired ligaments and feel comfortable throwing his fastball at 100%.  His slider is a different issue.  Control over breaking balls is very difficult.  He has shown this spring that he does not have the control over the slider that was the most devistating in the game.  His sliders are largely up in the zone and look more like a slow curve instead of having the dramatic breaking motion that it once had.  Spending time dominating Class A hitters will help him get important innings as well as get a feel for his pitches again.

2.  Confidence.  Liriano has always been a confident pitcher however with his coming back from Tommy John surgery he will need to continue to maintain the confidence that he had in 2006.  If he can work on his pitches and start to dominate the minors then Gardy will not have a hard decision to bring him up to the big show.

3.  Experience for other players.  The last thing the Twins want is to demote a pitcher who has pitched well in favor of someone who will sell Jerseys or tickets.  The Twins need to win in order for the fan base to be interested.  The residents of the upper mid-west are typically very bandwagon prone and if the Twins fall far out of the running early it will have an effect on the financial success this season.  Put someone in a position where they may win.  If that is Liriano fine, but if its not then let Liriano make his starts for the Miracle and lets have someone like Blackburn pitching.
All in all, I think that this is a good move several reasons.  I’m glad that they announced it today so that he can make a start prior to the regular season starting for the Miracle

Statistics are a funny thing

03.26.08

Ron Gardenhire announced this week that Carlos Gomez would be the opening day center fielder for the Twins by sending Denard Span and Jason Pridie to the Minor League spring training complex. At first glance it seems that Gardy has lost his mind. It has been written over and over that Gomez has the “tools” and that he was the centerpiece for the Santana trade but did he really beat out Span or Pridie?

Here is what I found on their performance thus far in Spring Training:

Gomez:  54ab/12r/15h/1hr/6rbi/26tb/10k/10sb/.293obp/.481slg/.278avg

Span:    39ab/6r/11h/0hr/2rbi/15tb/5k/3sb/.404/.385slg /.282avg

A few things stuck out from their spring training stats.

The first is slugging percentage.  Gomez has a much greater upside in this category.  When he does hit, he hits the ball for extra bases.  He doesn’t get a high percentage of singles.  He doesn’t have a ton of power however his speed allows him to easily get doubles and an even more exciting is his ability to get the triple.  In 15 hits he has taken third twice.

The second area that Gomez appears to have an advantage is in runs scored.  While Gomez does have more atbats, he score many many more runs.  So far this spring, Gomez is scoring at an amazing clip.  He’s been on base 17 times this spring and he’s scored 12 of those times.  Wow!

Not all of the stats go in favor of Gomez.  He does have a downside in that he doesn’t get on base all that often.  With guys like Mauer, Morneau and Cuddy batting behind him you would think that these guys will drive in runs.  Span is getting on base at a very high percentage.  He does this by primarily by working the count.  He has walked 7 times this spring.  This however is where stats become funny….  He has been on base 1 more time than Gomez (even with Gomez having a 15 atbat advantage) but has scored 6 less times.  There certainly is some variability in what causes players to score runs but when Gomez doubles Span’s run production it makes me think that there is something more to this than chance.

The next statistical advantage goes towards Gomez.  His RBI production has been decent considering his lack of hits.  He has 6 RBI to Span’s 2.  Gomez seems to thrive when men are on base or in scoring position.

The last statistic that really matters is pretty much a dead heat.  Span has a batting average of .282 with Gomez batting .278.

With these stats favoring Gomez, its no wonder why Gardy decided to take a calculated risk in starting Gomez.  With a on-base machine in Mauer likely batting in the #2 hole, it is likely that any ball through the infield will result in a run (as long as Gomez is on base).  The bottom line is this:  Gomez will mature with atbats.  He has the upside and while his strikeout to walk ratio is horrible, I believe that there will be many road games thsi year where our starting pitcher will be handed the ball with runs on the board.  That in itself will help the Twins out in a division where we need all the help we can get.

A Florida Smackdown

03.13.08

It appears that there is at least 1 Devil Rays player who is happy that Delmon Young is gone.

Carl Crawford.

This week during an interview he was asked about Delmon Young. Carl stated that he is sick of Delmon’s constant yapping and that he should “Shut up and play baseball”. He then went on to say that he would be glad to say that “to his [Delmon’s] face”. The reporters quickly relayed that information to Fort Myers where the Twins are holding spring training. Delmon failed to repspond.

Here’s the link: http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/40931

So this is what i’m wondering…. Why is Carl Crawford (and possibly more Devil Rays) so irritated with Delmon? We all know that he caused issues with the Rays but as of yet I have not heard one negative thing about his in the Twins camp. I’m hoping that his past doesn’t rear its ugly head!

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All I know is that i’ll be watching with anticipation on April 16th when the Twins square off against the Rays. It could be a smackdown that I would NOT want to miss!

Have a great week everyone… I’m off to Mexico for a week. See you on March 21st!

Will the real centerfielder please stand up?

03.12.08

During my morning search for Twins related content, I found this interesting video on the StarTribune website.  In a nutshell its an interview with Jerry White and each of the three centerfield candidates –  Carlos Gomez, Denard Span and Jason Pridie.

Check out the link here:  http://www.startribune.com/video/16538031.html

Since the trade that sent Johan Santana to the Mets, I have had the notion that Carlos Gomez was the heir apparent in the storied history of Twins centerfielders….  Puckett….Hunter…..Gomez.

I will admit that I have not spent much time doing any research on the candidates but I took it for face value that Gomez MUST be the guy.

So….its finally research time.  I’ll start with Gomez

Carlos Gomez  — Age 22

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Last year Gomez spent a short stint with the Mets.  He played in 58 games and had a less than impressive line.  He batted .232 with an on base percentage of just .288.  His most impressive ability is his ability to steal bases.  He is touted as being the “fasted man in baseball” however his inability to get on base (which is fueled by his horrible strikeout to walk ratio - 27:8) puts a damper on the only attribute that he seems to offer right now.  Assuming that Gomez improves his OPS, he could easily get 25 stolen bases without tying his cleats.  Gardenhire seems to like his speed and continues to work him out at the first spot in the batting order.  He is in love with his speed and believes that he can be very valuable if he could just learn to bunt and hit the ball into the ground.  The biggest question is whether or not he can actually do that.  He’s very raw and he might have the tools to help the club out but with every triple he gets we might have to deal with him striking out with the bases loaded.

Denard Span — Age 24

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Denard has been in the Twins organization for 5 years.  He has been a top 10 Twins prospect since his arrival to the organization back in 2003.  Scouts love his defensive abilities and his speed.  Many in the organization however have been down on his lack of progression and now many consider him to be a “bust”.  Denard has never spent time on the Twins squad and to date has had no major league atbats.  Denard was left off the squad during the September callups last year due to his ineffectiveness at the AAA level.  Gardenhire has currently been splitting time between Span and Gomez and the split-squad games during spring training this year. 

Jason Pridie  — Age 25

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Jason might be the most polished of the three candidates.  He has been playing professional baseball for 5 years and has had the most success at the minor league level.  Like Denard Span, Jason has never had a major league at-bat.  The concensus of most media/baseball people is that Pridie is the long shot to make the group.  This has nothing to do with his abilities but more of the “flash” of Gomez and the tenure of Span with the Twins organization.  That being said, Gardy tends to lean towards guys like Pridie…..The hard working guy who will do the little things right.  Pridie possesses speed, is an excellent bunter and uses the whole field during his at-bats.  If the other two candidates falter or don’t give Gardy what he is looking for, he just may be the dark horse of the group.  I have heard some people talk of him as if he’s a “younger, faster” version of Aaron Rowand.  His power seems to be developing and his power numbers and on base percentage increased substantially last year when he was with Durham of the International League. 

Ultimately, Gardy will have a tough decision to make on who to keep and who should take the 300 yard walk across the parking lot to the Twins minor league complex.  So far, it has been a race and it appears that each player has something unique to bring to the Twins.