Ron Gardenhire announced this week that Carlos Gomez would be the opening day center fielder for the Twins by sending Denard Span and Jason Pridie to the Minor League spring training complex. At first glance it seems that Gardy has lost his mind. It has been written over and over that Gomez has the “tools” and that he was the centerpiece for the Santana trade but did he really beat out Span or Pridie?
Here is what I found on their performance thus far in Spring Training:
Gomez: 54ab/12r/15h/1hr/6rbi/26tb/10k/10sb/.293obp/.481slg/.278avg
Span: 39ab/6r/11h/0hr/2rbi/15tb/5k/3sb/.404/.385slg /.282avg
A few things stuck out from their spring training stats.
The first is slugging percentage. Gomez has a much greater upside in this category. When he does hit, he hits the ball for extra bases. He doesn’t get a high percentage of singles. He doesn’t have a ton of power however his speed allows him to easily get doubles and an even more exciting is his ability to get the triple. In 15 hits he has taken third twice.
The second area that Gomez appears to have an advantage is in runs scored. While Gomez does have more atbats, he score many many more runs. So far this spring, Gomez is scoring at an amazing clip. He’s been on base 17 times this spring and he’s scored 12 of those times. Wow!
Not all of the stats go in favor of Gomez. He does have a downside in that he doesn’t get on base all that often. With guys like Mauer, Morneau and Cuddy batting behind him you would think that these guys will drive in runs. Span is getting on base at a very high percentage. He does this by primarily by working the count. He has walked 7 times this spring. This however is where stats become funny…. He has been on base 1 more time than Gomez (even with Gomez having a 15 atbat advantage) but has scored 6 less times. There certainly is some variability in what causes players to score runs but when Gomez doubles Span’s run production it makes me think that there is something more to this than chance.
The next statistical advantage goes towards Gomez. His RBI production has been decent considering his lack of hits. He has 6 RBI to Span’s 2. Gomez seems to thrive when men are on base or in scoring position.
The last statistic that really matters is pretty much a dead heat. Span has a batting average of .282 with Gomez batting .278.
With these stats favoring Gomez, its no wonder why Gardy decided to take a calculated risk in starting Gomez. With a on-base machine in Mauer likely batting in the #2 hole, it is likely that any ball through the infield will result in a run (as long as Gomez is on base). The bottom line is this: Gomez will mature with atbats. He has the upside and while his strikeout to walk ratio is horrible, I believe that there will be many road games thsi year where our starting pitcher will be handed the ball with runs on the board. That in itself will help the Twins out in a division where we need all the help we can get.
